Data from Canada’s winless campaign in the 2015 World Rugby Pacific Nations Cup confirm what we knew: Canada can throw the ball around and find results, but the scrum’s continued struggles are putting any chance of success at the 2015 Rugby World Cup in jeopardy.
Nonetheless, there is a glimmer of hope at lineout time. With just over a month to go until their RWC campaign kicks off, Canada should focus all its energy on solidifying the lineout.
As revealed by Jake Frechette’s fine work for Rugby Wrap Up this week, we can confirm Canada had the least efficient scrum over the two-plus weeks of the PNC.
As we can see, no team had a harder time at scrum time. Only Japan can say they were truly comfortable at scrums, but that shouldn’t come as a surprise. It’s the four penalties conceded and the four ‘under pressure’ wins that are concerning.
But forget all that. Canada’s struggles at scrum time are nothing new. They’ve struggled against heavy duty packs time and again in the last four years. While hope will spring eternal that Canada can find a magic technical elixir in the next month (there are still four games before RWC, after all), it’s a big mountain to climb.
So, instead, let’s talk about the lineout.
There’s your real pot of gold. That’s about timing and execution. Get your throws sorted, your jumpers’ timing and all of sudden, you’ve got a stable platform.
When it comes to the attacking half, Canada’s not had much of that and a lot of that is because their lineout work has been a shambles.
It’s also likely taken victories out of their grasp.
In this summer’s PNC, 40 per cent of tries started at lineouts. Tries come in the first two or three phases. There’s little doubt that had Canada had a more successful lineout, another try or two would have landed in their laps and instead of an 0-4 summer, we might be talking about a 2-2 summer.
It’s the little details, kids.
Frechette’s data shows that 40 per cent of tries in the PNC came off of lineouts. That’s in keeping with patterns found elsewhere. Early on in this Super Rugby Season, analysis found 37 per cent of tries originated at lineouts (powered by the Brumbies, who scored 18 of their first 23 tries off of lineouts). When former All Blacks coach Wayne Smith spoke in Vancouver almost two years ago, he pointed to similar numbers.
Smith figured the open space created by defences having to be ten metres back at lineouts and the ability to drive a maul made for potent attacking situations. Most lineout work is about timing and accuracy. If Canada can find a lineout rhythm, it stands to reason they’ve got a chance. They proved their ability to counter attack and while overall handling is still a concern, there’s enough to build on to suggest that on their day, they might prove capable of knocking off Italy.
But there’s also still a long way to go.
A big hat tip to Rugby Wrap Up’s Jake Frechette for sharing his data with us.
pjohnston@theprovince.com
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